Author Topic: Men's Olympic Trials Marathon 4 months out  (Read 196 times)

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Offline Coyote Mas Loco

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Men's Olympic Trials Marathon 4 months out
« on: October 21, 2019, 11:59:56 AM »
2:06:07 Galen Rupp
2:07:56  Leonard KORIR   
2:09:09 Scott Fauble
2:09:25 Jared Ward
2:10:36  Jacob RILEY   
2:10:37  Jerrell MOCK     
2:10:53  Parker STINSON   
2:10:56  Andrew BUMBALOUGH   
2:11:10  Matt MCDONALD   
2:11:14  Matt LLANO   
2:11:14 Scott SMITH     
2:11:38  Brendan GREGG   
2:11:42  Noah DRODDY   
2:11:44  Wilkerson GIVEN     
2:11:54  Diego ESTRADA     
2:12:10  Bernard LAGAT   
2:12:15  Andrew COLLEY   
2:12:25 Augustus MAIYO   
2:12:39 Brogan Austin

Here is the list of most of the favorites. Next February there might be 1 or 2 others in the mix, who haven't run a marathon yet (NYC and CIM still coming up) or are qualifying with a half marathon.

Rupp - Probably a toss up. If he's healthy and the NOP controversy has settled, then he'll be a favorite if not the favorite to make the team. But coming off major reconstructive surgery last year, and losing his coach and program just a few weeks ago due to a doping scandal, he might not even line up. He held on to 2:08 pace through 23 miles last week in Chicago before dropping out.

Korir - Moved to the US from Kenya about 10 years ago and ran NCAA track and XC for Iona. Ran a sub 2:08 debut in Amsterdam yesterday, fastest in American history. He's on the upswing and has been strong on the track and roads the past few years with the Army team (WCAP). Likely to make the team in either marathon or 10000 m or both. 

Fauble - 2:09 and top American (7th) at Boston this year. If Rupp doesn't run Fauble has a real good chance at making the team. And even if Rupp does run, he's been getting stronger each year and would battle the others for that 3rd spot. 

Ward - 2nd best American at Boston (8th) and not far behind Fauble there. Ran on the 2016 team in Rio and was 6th overall in the Olympics. That's a pretty good feat and shows he's a gamer. He, like Fauble is a strong favorite to make this team.

--we might almost be done here--could easily come down to these four, they are a notch above everyone else.

However, there are a number of exciting newcomers and later bloomers who could step in (and if history is any guide, it's often someone that is off the radar a bit who steps up on the big day to make the Olympic team).

We'll just jump in with the next three on the list: Riley, Mock, and Stinson. Jacob Riley at 31 is a journeyman runner running for Hanson's with Desi et al. early on, and has had a number of injuries, including the same injury and surgery that Rupp is coming off. He ran a 3 minute PR last week in Chicago to place 9th and place as the top American. Jerrel Mock is just 24 and unsponsored. He ran at Colorado State and was an All American, but did not have a strong senior year and for the past year and half has been on his own. However, he's been placing high at a number of big races, including USA 20K championships, Bix 7, and Utica Boilermaker. The 2:10 at Chicago will get him a sponsor. Parker Stinson has shown a lot of potential over the past few years, but his race tactics haven't been great (going out fast and fading). But he's now coached by Olympian Dathan Ritzenhein and has tempered his early pacing. He ran even splits to break 2:11 in Chicago.

And that brings us to two more competitors not on this list: Ritz himself and Chris Derrick, both high school and college running legends who have had injury plagued pro careers. Ritz has a 2:07 PR but that was some 7 years ago, and he's now in his late 30s. So just getting to the start line is a big deal. They say talent doesn't go away, but he's a very long shot to even make the top 6 or 7 in Atlanta. Derrick showed so much promise as a high school phenom and college All American at Stanford (running 27:20 for 10000) m. And he won the USA XC championships in 2015. But he's hardly been healthy since, and tragically broke his ankle in a road race a few months ago. Making the starting line and placing in the top 15 would be a good day for Derrick who is still under 30.

Last but not least is the wily old man, Bernard Lagat. At 45 he ran a 2:12 marathon this summer in Australia for an American masters record. He's won Olympic and world championship medals in mid-distances and has been a strong road runner. He's had some controversy in the past but remains a popular presence on the circuit. A few months ago, he was actually considered as a contender. Not likely with the newer runners stepping up. But he IS Bernard Lagat and he could surprise us all by making yet another Olympic team.         
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Offline diablita

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Re: Men's Olympic Trials Marathon 4 months out
« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2019, 02:39:33 PM »
Thanks for the forecast.  I really like both Scotts and Jared Ward.  Will be interesting to see how it goes.
"Some things you just need to do for yourself, even if it means nicking your nads."  --nneJ

Offline nadra's babydaddy

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Re: Men's Olympic Trials Marathon 4 months out
« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2019, 03:08:54 PM »
Scott looks Faubulous.  As does Ward.  It's probably not fair, but I can't help but dislike Rupp.  I don't know if it's the Salazar thing and all his fancy gimmicks or what, but I do wonder how the whole mess will effect him.  Fauble and Ward seem like almost the anti-Rupp...they have the feel of gritty old-school grinders who don't necessarily race a ton, but always seem to do well when they show up.  Plus I have to root for Ward because he's a Utah guy.

GOGOGO!!!!

Offline Coyote Mas Loco

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Re: Men's Olympic Trials Marathon 4 months out
« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2019, 04:10:17 PM »
I'm pulling for Korir, Fauble and Ward to make the team, maybe with Mock as a backup/spoiler. 

Galen has had his day, clean or not, and he's never shown much personality or passion. Some years back, when he was still in college or soon after going pro, he was referred to as The Experiment, or Salazar's Experiment. And the now verified revelations of the USADA arbitration just bring that out more so.

So my bias goes all-Colorado, as I train at least once a week at open space park across from Fauble's high school, and I've been tracking Mock since his junior year at CSU when he ran something like 28:10 for 10000 m, but has had to be an underdog since graduating. And Korir trains just down the road in C. Springs. That said, Ward is a likeable guy and really solid marathoner and it'd be great to see him make another team.
The coyote - doesn't play nicely

Offline Coyote Mas Loco

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Re: Men's Olympic Trials Marathon 4 months out
« Reply #4 on: January 15, 2020, 06:44:16 PM »
Droddy out! Say ain't so. We need meme man Randmart to find the photo, but he's the dude with waist-length hair and a scruffy beard who made his name as an unseeded runner lining up next to Rupp in the 2016 OT 10000 m run.

Running for Saucony. Injured following his 2:11 at Chicago in October.
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Offline nadra's babydaddy

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Re: Men's Olympic Trials Marathon 4 months out
« Reply #5 on: January 15, 2020, 07:31:31 PM »
WALMSLEYWALMSLEYWALMSLEY!!!

Offline Coyote Mas Loco

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Re: Men's Olympic Trials Marathon 4 months out
« Reply #6 on: January 20, 2020, 06:48:26 PM »
WALMSLEYWALMSLEYWALMSLEY!!!

He ran 1:02:16 on a short course in Phoenix yesterday (RnR Marathons comes through yet again), estimated 1:03:00 or so, a decent time. However, he would be the 20th fastest half USA marathoner yesterday as 18 did better at Houston and one US guy beat him in Phoenix.

I'm sticking with 2:13+/- and 8th to 15th place at the Trials.
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Offline diablita

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Re: Men's Olympic Trials Marathon 4 months out
« Reply #7 on: January 20, 2020, 07:05:52 PM »
That short course problem suuuuucks. I was angry when Cleveland Half measured long, can't imagine how it must feel when you're trying to OTQ or score a course record, etc.
"Some things you just need to do for yourself, even if it means nicking your nads."  --nneJ

Offline nadra's babydaddy

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Re: Men's Olympic Trials Marathon 4 months out
« Reply #8 on: January 21, 2020, 02:58:21 PM »
Seriously how hard is it to measure an accurate course on the roads in this day and age, especially for a major event?  45 seconds off for the studs is nothing to sneeze at. 

Offline nadra's babydaddy

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Re: Men's Olympic Trials Marathon 4 months out
« Reply #9 on: January 22, 2020, 02:19:44 PM »
How about the poor bastard who ran 2:19:00.14.....and got denied entry....after initially being accepted.   :o

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