2019 Boston Marathon!!

[nadra's babydaddy]

I actually remembered 4 days in advance this time!  Looks like another year of crappy weather that could potentially be as bad as last year, which is fantastic.

Men:  Most of the usual players are back.  It'll be most likely between Kirui and Desisa; the two reasonably fast africans with recent success who've consistently thrown down on the Boston and NY rolling-type courses.  Kawabunga is returning and we've seen what the crappy weather equalizer can do for him, but considering all the pieces that had to fall into place for him to win last year, we're essentially talking about lightning striking twice.  The enigma that is Dathan Ritzenhein is also making an appearance and represents perhaps the best american hope, which doesn't say much.  He gets my 'most likely to crash and burn' nomination.  If he isn't a late scratch before the race after pulling a muscle while taking a selfie with a fan, look for him to shatter in a million pieces while high-fiving a spectator in Wellsley.

Women:  Similar story.  Most of the usual players are back, but there are a slew of fast africans with PRs substantially better than Desi's.  We're again looking for lightning to strike twice.  But...weather.  Sara Hall is curiously in the field as well. Haven't heard much from her, but lo and behold, she set marathon and half marathon PRs last year.  But while God clearly prefers her over her husband, her PR is 2:26 which would necessitate a perfect race combined with flops from like 10 women ahead of her.  God doesn't like anybody that much. 

Civilians:  Give me names and bib numbers!

My bugle is ready for action!  GOGOGO!!! 

[Coyote Mas Loco]

Good summary of the leaders, especially Kiruri and Desisa as favorites in the men's race. 

For fastest US men (at best a podium spot for one of them) I like Scott Fauble's chances, if for no other reason that he went to high school across from the opens space park where I do a lot of my tempo and recovery runs. Nevertheless, he's been consistent and solid (2:12 PR) for the past couple of years. And Shadrack Biwott place 3rd at Boston last year and has had top placings at NYC, so he's also a good threat to make the podium. Ritz is such a wild card I don't even want to guess. He's so talented but so hit and miss, my best case for him however, is a 2:13 and top 7. Jared Ward, a lot like Fauble, got 6th in the Olympics and ran well at NYC last fall (top 6 or 7) and has a shot at top 5 in Boston. Japanese runners Yuki Kawauchi and Inu

For the women Worknesh Degefa appears to be a heavy favorite, ran 2:17 in January, 4th fastest ever. Jordan Hasay has the best PR of the Americans (2:20:57) but she's been injured nearly for a full year, and only did tempo/pace efforts in this build-up. I like Des Linden's chances, not to win, for a podium finish. Hall is great to watch. Yeah Ryan wears God on his sleeve and wasn't always the smartest racer (he ran with his heart not his head), but he's likable and a good coach: do as I say, not as I did. A top 5 for her would be great and I really think she might make the 2020 Olympic team. Sally Kipyego and Lindsay Flanagan could break out with some good results. Flanagan runs for my former club and has run a 2:29.

Obviously I'm not running this year, and won't miss it, but might return ca. 2022 and hope for a better weather day than my Boston debut of last year. Good luck to those heading out to Hopkinton this weekend!
   

[nadra's babydaddy]

I like Jared Ward for the same reasons.  Utah represent!   

Degefa is who I was thinking of on the women's side.  There are just so many studs this year.  I do think Desi will still be up there.  She's in the same class as a guy like Meb; picture of consistency who will reliably finish near the podium every year, who's PR isn't quite fast enough to mix it up with the studs, but will have all the stars align every once in a blue moon and be in a position to win. 

[nadra's babydaddy]

GOGOGO!!!

Thus begins the challenge of once again finding a live stream for free or as cheaply as possible.   

[Coyote Mas Loco]

NBC Sports Gold - it's like $79 a year but you get all of the Diamond League and a dozen more big-time or championship races.

I'm thinking Hasay or Linden or both on the podium tomorrow. And hoping Fauble or Ward make it, or at least a top 5. Also note that anyone in the top 10 gets qualification for the Olympics under the new rules. That is they don't need the 2:11/2:29 time to get in--so it would be up to the respective country who gets to go. The upshot of that is hope that a bunch get into the top 10. 

[nadra's babydaddy]

Also note that anyone in the top 10 gets qualification for the Olympics under the new rules. That is they don't need the 2:11/2:29 time to get in--so it would be up to the respective country who gets to go. The upshot of that is hope that a bunch get into the top 10. 

It'll be interesting to see how this effects strategy.  Seems like it would make a podium finish less likely by favoring a more conservative, low-risk approach, staying just close enough to the front and picking off people who go for the win and crash. Unless the elements are terrible enough to make all the move-makers implode once again.

[Coyote Mas Loco]

I listened to Running Rogue podcast yesterday with some previews and it's likely that the Americans will work together--Ritz, Fauble, Ward, and Biwott so that they have the best chance of getting those higher placings. Podium great, but 4-10 is also good.

They also predict Yuki will take out fast again and the pack will reel him in by the Newton Hills.

Looks like another weather shit show but not as dramatic as last year, although lightning doesn't sound like such a great thing. 61 degree, 62 dewpoint, 19 mpw cross wind from the south.

[i am party]

2019 Elite Men's Open Field
Name                   Country   Personal best
Lawrence Cherono   Kenya   2:04:06 (Amsterdam, 2018)
Sisay Lemma           Ethiopia   2:04:08 (Dubai, 2018)
Lemi Berhanu           Ethiopia   2:04:33 (Dubai, 2016)
Solomon Deksisa   Ethiopia   2:04:40 (Amsterdam, 2018)
Lelisa Desisa           Ethiopia   2:04:45 (Dubai, 2013)
Kenneth Kipkemoi   Kenya   2:05:44 (Rotterdam, 2018)
Felix Kandie           Kenya   2:06:03 (Seoul, 2017)
Geoffrey Kirui           Kenya   2:06:27 (Amsterdam, 2016)
Festus Talam           Kenya   2:06:13 (Eindhoven, 2017)
Wesley Korir           Kenya   2:06:13 (Chicago, 2012)
Philemon Rono           Kenya   2:06:52 (Toronto, 2017)
Hiroto Inoue           Japan   2:06:54 (Tokyo, 2018)
Benson Kipruto           Kenya   2:07:11 (Seoul, 2018)
Ghirmay GhebreslassieEritrea   2:07:46 (London, 2016)
Dathan Ritzenhein     USA   2:07:47 (Chicago, 2012)
Yuki Kawauchi           Japan   2:08:14 (Seoul, 2013)
Zersenay Tadese   Eritrea   2:08:46 (Berlin, 2018)
Abdi Abdirahman      USA   2:08:56 (Chicago, 2006)
Mohamed Reda El AaraMorocco   2:09:16 (Chicago, 2018)
Hayato Sonoda           Japan   2:09:34 (Oita, 2018)
Scott Overall    Great Britain   2:10:55 (Berlin, 2011)
Jeffrey Eggleston     USA   2:10:52 (Gold Coast, 2014)
Jared Ward             USA   2:11:30 (Rio de Janeiro, 2016)
Elkanah Kibet             USA   2:11:31 (Chicago, 2015)
Timothy Ritchie             USA   2:11:56 (Sacramento, 2017)
Shadrack Biwott             USA   2:12:01 (New York City, 2016)
Scott Fauble             USA   2:12:28 (New York City, 2018)
Aaron Braun             USA   2:12:54 (Houston, 2015)
Brian Shrader             USA   2:13:31 (Sacramento, 2018)

2019 Elite Women's Open Field
Name                 Country   Personal best
Aselefech Mergia   Ethiopia   2:19:31 (Dubai, 2012)
Edna Kiplagat           Kenya   2:19:50 (London, 2012)
Mare Dibaba          Ethiopia   2:19:52 (Dubai, 2012)
Worknesh Degefa   Ethiopia   2:19:53 (Dubai, 2018)
Meskerem Assefa   Ethiopia   2:20:36 (Frankfurt, 2018)
Jordan Hasay             USA   2:20:57 (Chicago, 2017)
Belaynesh Oljira          Ethiopia   2:21:53 (Frankfurt, 2018)
Sharon Cherop          Kenya   2:22:28 (Berlin, 2013)
Desiree Linden             USA   2:22:38 (Boston, 2011)
Marta Megra          Ethiopia   2:22:35 (Toronto, 2018)
Betsy Saina          Kenya   2:22:56 (Paris, 2018)
Caroline Rotich           Kenya   2:23:22 (Chicago, 2012)
Sara Hall                     USA   2:26:20 (Ottawa, 2018)
Eva Vrabcova   Czech Republic   2:26:31 (Berlin, 2018) NR
Sally Kipyego             USA   2:28:01 (New York City, 2016)
Krista Duchene          Canada   2:28:32 (Toronto, 2013)
Alyson Dixon   Great Britain   2:29:06 (London, 2017)
Lindsay Flanagan      USA   2:29:25 (Frankfurt, 2018)
Becky Wade             USA   2:30:41 (Sacramento, 2013)
Sarah Crouch              USA   2:32:27 (Chicago, 2018)
Sarah Sellers              USA   2:36:37 (New York City, 2018)
Mary Wacera           Kenya   66:29 (Houston half-marathon, 2016)

[Coyote Mas Loco]

NBC sports gold is locked up on me 

But here's the CORRECTED local link and it seems to be working.

https://boston.cbslocal.com/live/channel/cbs-boston-live-video/

[nadra's babydaddy]

Still working on a feed.  I'm not paying no 75 bucks.  But I always find a way!   

[Coyote Mas Loco]

If you're year-round track and road racing fan then the NBC feed is worthwhile. Obviously not for just a couple of races here and there.

Damn Blasted! had the morning open. But have to reschedule an afternoon meeting to now, so I'll miss most of the women's race and half of the men's!

[Coyote Mas Loco]

Wrong link; here !

https://boston.cbslocal.com/live/channel/cbs-boston-live-video/

[nadra's babydaddy]

Got it now!  Yeah, someone scheduled a stupid meeting here for 9:30 (90 minutes from now) which will be just when things are getting good.  I never have meetings at that time! Sigh. 

Looks like the weather may be better than anticipated?

[Honey Badger]

Can't access the live feed if you are outside of New England or your servers are outside New England. 

[nadra's babydaddy]

o rly? 

[nadra's babydaddy]

So far I've seen about 15 seconds of runners and the rest wheelchairs.  CtW must be thrilled!

And apparently a 17:30s 5k was brisk enough to whittle the women's field down to 3.  Good times!

[nadra's babydaddy]

Check that, one.  Degefa has 20 seconds at 7 miles and looks to have knocked it down to ~2:22 pace.  Homegirl don't mess around!   

[nadra's babydaddy]

Still waiting for word from Larry Rawson on how many football fields the gap is...

[nadra's babydaddy]

Half the letsrun thread is rojo bitching about how terrible the coverage is.  Business as usual. 

[nadra's babydaddy]

Just over 2:21 pace at halfway.  I'm really surprised no one has gone with her - it's not like she's a random no namer.  The pace is fast, but not insane.