Leave this sh*t in Running!

[Coyote Mas Loco]

 

so who do you like for the Chicago Marathon this weekend?

https://www.chicagomarathon.com/press-center/elite-athlete-field/

[Coyote Mas Loco]

Okay, so I changed the subject-felt kind of silly after I put that up there.

Most of the buzz about this race is about Gwen Jorgensen's "debut" (she more casually ran NYC a couple years ago), in her first serious attempt at the marathon. Can she be top American or podium? The field lost a lot of luster when Jordan Hasay and Amy Craig pulled out last month due to injuries. There was a lot of talk of 2:19 and breaking the American record. 2:25 marathoner Laura Thweatt is the best remaining American.

Three of the women's entrants have PRs under 2:20:
Roza Dereje ETH 2:19:17 104
Florence Kiplagat KEN 2:19:44 105
Birhane Dibaba ETH 2:19:51 106

On the men's side it's all about Mo Farah vs. Galen Rupp. Both PRd at 2:06 last spring. Does Rupp have a shot at the official best time for USA (Ryan Hall's 2:04:58 at Boston doesn't count)? 

Here are the top contenders.
Mosinet Geremew ETH 2:04:00 4
Birhanu Legese ETH 2:04:15 5
Dickson Chumba KEN 2:04:32 6
Abel Kirui KEN 2:05:04 2

[Coyote Mas Loco]

The incels at letsrun probably have 2:30+/- as a median prediction.
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=9038746&page=6

There is a strong dislike for Jorgensen over there because she had the audacity to make a very bold and public declaration of winning a gold medal the marathon. Been an interesting year, she started off so well with 15:15 5K indoors and 31:55 for 10000 m outdoors, and then sort of plateaued and went backwards over the summer. But considering she's new as a full time runner and was probably in a heavy volume phase, those results were probably not to be unexpected.

High end expectations - Thweatt 2:24 (5th), Jorgensen 2:28 (top 10)

Men's race - they're talking about Abel Kiruri as a favorite along with Farah and Rupp. I think it's going to be a Rupp-certified set up, and he and Mo will go 1,2 in 2:05 or 2:06. It'd be good to see another American go sub 2:10. Some talk of former U of O runner Parker Stinson doing that. Boston winner Yuki Kawauchi is also in the field and he's always interesting to follow.





 

[Coyote Mas Loco]

Here's a follow  up thread:
Why Gwen Jorgensen is disliked on Letsrun:
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=9042450&page=1

It's the marketing/social media thing. And she didn't quietly step in line and work her way up the ranks before announcing that she'd like to win gold at the Olympics. For some, it's simply because of her gender.

[Coyote Mas Loco]

I fucking hate reading Letsrun

The format is ugly, and there are ads everywhere

Other than the links on the front page, the content is awful

Careful or they'll try to out you. They are a mean-spirited and vindictive bunch.

[Coyote Mas Loco]

Okay, now who do you like? I just listened to Running Rogue podcast and they spent an hour discussing the top racers at Chicago. Weather decent but not great, 60s and raining.

I'll go with Dibaba for the win in 2:20. Still sticking with Thweatt as top American woman, and maybe top 5, in 2:25 or 2:24 (the boys at Rogue favor Jorgensen), and Jorgensen at 2:28.

For the men I'll go with Mo, Kiruri, Rupp at 2:05-2:06 range. I'd like to see Rupp run under 2:05:30 an get the American record for eligible courses (Hall's 2:04:58 at Boston is not record eligible). And I agree with the podcasters that Parker Stinson is one to watch for a break out American performance at 2:10-2:11 range. 

[Coyote Mas Loco]

Spoiler Alert!
;;;;
.






I watched the marathon before my long run today. Men's race was pretty exciting, with MoBot taking a well-earned win. He actually did a lot of the pace work over the last miles and did not wait until 400 to go. Kipchoge is the best but on any given day, Mo could win. Rupp ran solid against the Olympic quality field, but the story of the day may have been Osako of Japan taking 3rd and setting a Japanese record (good for $800,000 or something like that according to the announcers).

Kosgei was simply dominant with a 2:18 finish for the women. American women had an overall disappointing day (Thweatt dropped out at 10 or so and Jorgensen struggled with a 2:36. Has had a rough 6 months and is going backwards. Unheralded Sarah Crouch, who ran Division II in college did run 2:32 for 6th.

[nadra's babydaddy]

I'm trying to be better about my white nationalism, but it makes me irrationally giddy when Rupp comes up short, particularly when he crashes and burns in one of his space suits. 

[Coyote Mas Loco]

meh on Rupp, almost ambivalent. I want to like him and cheer for him but the un-concluded NOP clouds persist. Same goes for Farah, even though he's back home and now training under Paula Radcliff's husband. Osako is the new man. Yuki had a decent but not great day at 2:16.

Elkanah Kibet was 2nd American at 2:12 leading a string of Americans at 13th-18th place 2:12-2:14, so no 2:09s/2:10s as many were hoping.

Jorgensen is getting crucified on Letsrun. A few defenders but a bunch of sharks suggesting she's a big mouth failure and should give it up already.

[nadra's babydaddy]

I wasn't previously aware of Jorgensen, it seems I need to pay more attention to the letsrun rabble.   Seems like an interesting story - scoring a gold in the triathlon and then switching over.  But setting lofty goals and being female are two big marks against you at letsrun.   

She may be in for a rude awakening - while triathlon may favor the natural athlete who can do all the things, now you're competing against super humans who've devoted their lives to this particular discipline.  You can't shift gears just like that and expect to suddenly beat everybody.  I'm intrigued to see what she can do, but girl, you gotta pay some serious dues first.  I'd say she gets at least 2 crash-and-burn passes after lofty predictions (a la Jim Walmsley).  Beyond that, eternal shunning is appropriate. 

I guess at least she only needs about a 15 minute marathon PR now instead of 20 like in her original soundbite?   

[Richard21142]

Jorgensen's goal was to race the entire distance.  Running 2:36 probably met that goal.  It was faster than her NYC marathon, it my memory is correct was 2:41.

[Coyote Mas Loco]

Jorgensen's 5K, 10K, and half marathon PRs all indicate sub 2:30 fitness, and the thinking was if she was knocking those times out in the first half of the year, and just some 6 months after starting up serious training then she definitely had potential to make the US team.

Looks like she ran for a 2:32 or so yesterday and couldn't hold that in the end. But agree, 2:36 isn't the end of the world. Seems like the big mileage increase took a toll and there is a lot of talk about an ED, because she is very thin. Take a step back, recover, and spend 5-6 months working on those shorter distances again. Maybe do a late spring full (Grandmas, or overseas), or try Berlin in the early fall.

I hope she sticks with it for another year or two.