U.S. Olympic Marathon Trials!

[nadra's babydaddy]

We're just a couple short weeks away from a showdown in Mickey Mouse land!

Apparently Abdi MF Abdirahman will be on the starting line yet again at the sprightly age of 47 and will of course somehow find a way to get in there, but that still leaves two spots up for grabs! Who do you like?  Can Rupp seal the deal again?  The letsrun rabble say he's COOKED, so obviously it must be true.  Will the holy ghost be on Mantz's side and help him bring it home on behalf of Cougars everywhere?

On the women's side, my former college teammate Mary Denholm is fresh off of ripping a 2:36 at CIM and is clearly the odds-on favorite, despite Emily Sisson's 18 minute PR advantage.  Mary is 36 but has only gotten faster with age and even managed to PR at the trials 4 years ago on that ridiculous course in Atlanta, so she knows how to get it done in big moments against the elements.  Another solid effort/PR wouldn't surprise me in the least. 

GOGOGO!!!     

[Loco Coyote]

It's Emily Sisson's race to lose on the women's side, and other than that both men's and women's fields are fairly wide open.

Sisson, Keria D'Amato, Betsy Saina, and Molly Seidel are all strong favorites to make the team. They have all run 2:23 or faster, the slowest among them is Seidel on only ran to a bronze medal at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021. She's been off and on, but ran a 2:23 PR last fall and had a good training block up to the first few days of January, but then dropped off Strava. The Letsrun incels hate her and say she's cooked. We'll see. Saina has run 2:21 and has a good shot. D'Amato the former American record holder (2:19) has been fairly consistent. Everyone (recreational runners/American running fans) had annointed Emma Bates as a shoe-in, but she pulled out with an injury (messed up her foot at Chicago), so she's out but said to be training for Boston. Sara Hall has also been battling injuries and is questionable for the OTs.
https://www.usatf.org/events/2024/2024-u-s-olympic-team-trials-%e2%80%94-marathon/2024-u-s-olympic-team-trials-marathon-qualificatio/women-s-marathon-performances
Two interesting debut marathoners are Jenny Simpson 1:10 half marathon, the multi-time Olympic and World Champion medalist. And Natosha Rogers, more of a 5000 and 10000 m specialist, who also qualified with a half.

On the men's side other than Rupp there's Mantz, Clayton Young, Scott Fauble, and Sam Chelanga. But anyone in that top 10 or 15 ranking has a good shot. And if history is a guide expect a total dark horse to make a big splash and make the team. Veteran runner Diego Estrada just ran 1:00:40 for half the half other day. https://www.usatf.org/events/2024/2024-u-s-olympic-team-trials-%e2%80%94-marathon/2024-u-s-olympic-team-trials-marathon-qualificatio/men-s-marathon-performances

[nadra's babydaddy]

There must be a mistake - Walmsley is not on the list!   

Fauble always seems to throw down with a faubulous effort when it counts, so it wouldn't surprise me to see him find his way in despite having a slower PR than some of the other studs.   I've always enjoyed CJ Albertson's antics and would love to see him steal a spot as well or at least do his crazy start and make the race interesting.  He ran 2:11s on back to back weekends in December because why not?  So with just one race to focus on, at least a 2:10 seems reasonable, which could be enough with this rabble! 

[Loco Coyote]

Fauble is certainly in the conversation and is among the top 4 or 5 to make the team. Along with the somewhat enigmatic CJ Albertson, add Zach Panning, Lindsay Flanagan, and Gabrielle Rooker to the list of maybes with a decent chance. Panning and Flanagan did very well under very hot conditions at the World Championships last summer. Rooker has been on a roll and has a 2:23 to her name.

[nadra's babydaddy]

Somewhat enigmatic covers CJ quite well!  I hope he makes for some entertaining TV at least.  And it's 'murica marathoning, so if you can consistently hit 2:10-11 and prevail in difficult conditions you have a decent shot! 

Anyone named Flanagan should just gain automatic entry 

[Loco Coyote]

Recently announced that 2016 Olympian Jared Ward is out. He would have been a longest of longshots anyway, but noteworthy.

I hate it when letsrun rumormongers are right, but here's a second-hand hot take. Molly Seidel is indeed out. Has not been verified independently but a friend of a friend was supposed to interview her this week and Molly apparently said no to the interview at the last minute and she won't be racing in the Trials this weekend. I guess we'll get the story or at least an announcement between now and Saturday morning.

[nadra's babydaddy]

WARDWARDWARD!

He was consistently solid until he wasn't.  He at one point lived literally around the corner from the schools I work at now and I'd see him out running once in a blue moon.  I think he's since moved further south closer to BYU.

That would be a shame about Molly.  She's fun to root for and her flashes of brilliance have been something to marvel at, but her various struggles seem to have made her ensuing success/spotlight challenging to manage, not to mention her difficulty staying injury-free.  But she's always been an enigma and I'd be no more surprised to see her abruptly show up in a turkey suit and run a 2:20. 

[nadra's babydaddy]

Well boo, she just posted an insta video announcing it.  Knee injury.  I'm still in favor of the turkey suit though - flying is much easier on the knees!

It turns out there's a shit ton of Utahns running, which makes sense as I know a bunch of them put in time in the Park City area.  Salt Lake Running Company just did a whole feature on them.  We have fast motherfuckers out here. 

[nadra's babydaddy]

GOGOGOGO!!!

[nadra's babydaddy]

Abdi is never going to age, is he? 

[Loco Coyote]

Well that was fun! Both men's and women's races were fantastic. Men's was more to form, although Rupp faded. Bummed for Panning in 5th but also happy that Leonard Korir made it after finishing 4th in 2020. I don't know the path forward for that third position with the new rankings rules and so will have see how that plays out over the next three months. Clayton Young certainly looked more fresh than Mantz over the stretch, some talk that Mantz gets the bigger winner's bonus from his contract so maybe they made a deal to share that pie.

Women's race had the big surprises! We expected Sisson to make the team and she did, but Fiona O'Keefe, Dakota Lindwurm, and Jessica McClain in the top 4? Heartbreak for Hall.

[nadra's babydaddy]

Fun is a good description!  Some solid, smash mouth racing on both sides even in spite of the conditions, which lead to a hefty supply of Taps and many favorites going home DEVASTATED!...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iTWK4R8-MwM

The Saturn-size balls award goes to Panning for setting the pace even when he could've tucked behind Mantz/Clayton and conserved some energy once the 3 of them had separation, presumably in search of the Olympics qualifying standard.  Even if it works 20% of the time and flops 80%, you miss 100% of the shots you don't take, so it's hard to blame him.  And it's always nice to see the guy who got 4th last year lock up 3rd this year, especially after running it down at the very end, so props to Korir.  I have no idea what that will ultimately look like with the qualifying process, but if nothing else hopefully he gets a "closest you can ever actually get without being in the olympics" award.

I too was wondering about the finish and if there was some sort of deal in place.  Mantz lead for all of about 20 feet of the race with Clayton doing all the work and (IMO) looking like the more comfortable of the two, so it seemed odd that he would give it up like that.  Oh well, Utahns are weird.

Hats off to Albertson as well, if nothing else then for proving one of my predictions true!  A more restrained effort today, which ultimately contributed to landing on the good end of his 2:10-2:11 range and put him within 10 seconds of the podium!  Here's to probably repeating it in Boston, assuming he can stand to wait that long between marathons.

The women: Crazy times! I don't know if I'd call it a catastrophic disappointment for Hall - with the talent on hand, she pretty much needed to have a perfect race, have at least one of the studs falter, and not have a dark horse or relative unknown pull one out of their ass for her to make the team.  I think she ran about as well as she could've and was in the mix until the end, so I'd give it 2 out of 3!  I don't know what an O'Keeffe or what a Lindwurm is, apart from something my doctor has given me antibiotics for, but in the past things have worked out quite well for our dark house qualifiers!

Alas, my former teammate was among the Taps victims - stomach revolts from the first gel, leading to her calling it a day before the third loop.  She's 36 but has only gotten better with age, so it wouldn't surprise me at all if she made a return appearance! 

[Loco Coyote]

Racing at that level for to run in the Olympics is going to require a lot of gaming and guessing, and I wonder if Panning and CJ are second guessing themselves. Panning for pushing so hard in the middle of the race and CJ for letting the top 3 get a way by just a bit too much. He was closing fast and was only 10 seconds out of a spot. He had a raw interview on Citius Magazine Youtube just after the race. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9yoF-eDS54 They both ran heroic races, as did Elkanah Kibet in 4th (US age 40+ Masters record of 2:10:02).

O'Keefe was mostly off the radar, but aforementioned Citius Podcast did bring her up along with Natosha Rogers as darkhorse debutants, with a strong track background. O'Keefe was a many time All-American at Stanford has 15:01 5K and 30:52 10K credentials. Most everyone (me included) focused more on Rogers. Just an amazing debut and already among the all time American greats (top 10) on an imperfect day for a marathon.

Lindwurm is a remarkable story. She was an average HS runner, decent for Division II college runner (35th at national xc one year), but you would expect her to develop into an Olympian. She has just improved year by year since finishing college 6 or 7 years ago. She did win Grandma's marathon twice, ran 2:29 at Boston, and 2:24 last fall in Chicago. Kind of in the picture but I dismissed her at not at that level (did the same with Lenny Korir who a year ago I'd put as a favorite, because he was winning a lot of road races, but fell off was 5th-7th and wasn't looking as strong as he did in 2022/early 2023). re: Lindwurm, I figured it would take someone with 2:20-2:22 creds to make this team. 2:24 is good but off the conversation for a veteran runner.

I got 50% of the 6 picks, which is about as good as you're going to get most years for that Olympic team pre-guess.

[nadra's babydaddy]

Probably the same 50% I got.  And from somewhere beyond, Randmart is undoubtedly losing his mind over O'Keeffe and the double double letters!   


Albertson's interviews are always fun!  He really had them in his crosshairs and had what I believe was the fastest last mile of anyone.  If it's just a mile or two longer he probably makes it!

[Loco Coyote]

I have seen O'Keeffe/O'Keefe spelled both ways! Headlines on Saturday had one f.

[Loco Coyote]

I had some fun listening to the Citius Magazine podcast prediction panel with Chris Chavez, Mac Fleet, Kyle Merber, and Eric Jenkins (bro' town), but after the race. They had Galen FTW and Sisson for either a win or cruising it in safely (sort of how it played out) and went with the safer picks. They did mention O'Keeffe and Rogers as track runners who could make some noise, and briefly mentioned Lindwurm as a high mileage runner. The funniest thing was they totally dissed Clayton Young, and nobody had him on their top 4, but at the end they realized that and went nuts for 5 minutes--like oops! 2:08 flat, auto-qualifier. Maybe we screwed that up!

[nadra's babydaddy]

Clayton is good at staying under the radar and has perhaps been overshadowed by Mantz a bit.  I don't know if that will continue to be the case as he clearly had the most commanding presence of the two on Saturday.  But nothing like getting second at the olympic trials and not even being the top guy on your college team! 

Not like they were good at predicting anyway, as Rupp goes home devastated!  I thought I had heard at one point that he was a Taps victim, but it turned out he was just hanging out back with the commoners and strolled in at 2:14.  I'm sure Salazar is working from behind the shadows to develop a de-ageing chamber for him and that he'll continue to be the "THAT guy is still around?" favorite for the next 50 years.