Author Topic: Men's Olympic Trials Marathon 2 weeks out (Read 15073 times)

Coyote Mas Loco · « **on:** October 21, 2019, 12:59:56 PM »

2:06:07 Galen Rupp
2:07:56 Leonard KORIR
2:09:09 Scott Fauble
2:09:25 Jared Ward
2:10:36 Jacob RILEY
2:10:37 Jerrell MOCK
2:10:53 Parker STINSON
2:10:56 Andrew BUMBALOUGH
2:11:10 Matt MCDONALD
2:11:14 Matt LLANO
2:11:14 Scott SMITH
2:11:38 Brendan GREGG
2:11:42 Noah DRODDY
2:11:44 Wilkerson GIVEN
2:11:54 Diego ESTRADA
2:12:10 Bernard LAGAT
2:12:15 Andrew COLLEY
2:12:25 Augustus MAIYO
2:12:39 Brogan Austin

Here is the list of most of the favorites. Next February there might be 1 or 2 others in the mix, who haven't run a marathon yet (NYC and CIM still coming up) or are qualifying with a half marathon.

Rupp - Probably a toss up. If he's healthy and the NOP controversy has settled, then he'll be a favorite if not the favorite to make the team. But coming off major reconstructive surgery last year, and losing his coach and program just a few weeks ago due to a doping scandal, he might not even line up. He held on to 2:08 pace through 23 miles last week in Chicago before dropping out.

Korir - Moved to the US from Kenya about 10 years ago and ran NCAA track and XC for Iona. Ran a sub 2:08 debut in Amsterdam yesterday, fastest in American history. He's on the upswing and has been strong on the track and roads the past few years with the Army team (WCAP). Likely to make the team in either marathon or 10000 m or both.

Fauble - 2:09 and top American (7th) at Boston this year. If Rupp doesn't run Fauble has a real good chance at making the team. And even if Rupp does run, he's been getting stronger each year and would battle the others for that 3rd spot.

Ward - 2nd best American at Boston (8th) and not far behind Fauble there. Ran on the 2016 team in Rio and was 6th overall in the Olympics. That's a pretty good feat and shows he's a gamer. He, like Fauble is a strong favorite to make this team.

--we might almost be done here--could easily come down to these four, they are a notch above everyone else.

However, there are a number of exciting newcomers and later bloomers who could step in (and if history is any guide, it's often someone that is off the radar a bit who steps up on the big day to make the Olympic team).

We'll just jump in with the next three on the list: Riley, Mock, and Stinson. Jacob Riley at 31 is a journeyman runner running for Hanson's with Desi et al. early on, and has had a number of injuries, including the same injury and surgery that Rupp is coming off. He ran a 3 minute PR last week in Chicago to place 9th and place as the top American. Jerrel Mock is just 24 and unsponsored. He ran at Colorado State and was an All American, but did not have a strong senior year and for the past year and half has been on his own. However, he's been placing high at a number of big races, including USA 20K championships, Bix 7, and Utica Boilermaker. The 2:10 at Chicago will get him a sponsor. Parker Stinson has shown a lot of potential over the past few years, but his race tactics haven't been great (going out fast and fading). But he's now coached by Olympian Dathan Ritzenhein and has tempered his early pacing. He ran even splits to break 2:11 in Chicago.

And that brings us to two more competitors not on this list: Ritz himself and Chris Derrick, both high school and college running legends who have had injury plagued pro careers. Ritz has a 2:07 PR but that was some 7 years ago, and he's now in his late 30s. So just getting to the start line is a big deal. They say talent doesn't go away, but he's a very long shot to even make the top 6 or 7 in Atlanta. Derrick showed so much promise as a high school phenom and college All American at Stanford (running 27:20 for 10000) m. And he won the USA XC championships in 2015. But he's hardly been healthy since, and tragically broke his ankle in a road race a few months ago. Making the starting line and placing in the top 15 would be a good day for Derrick who is still under 30.

Last but not least is the wily old man, Bernard Lagat. At 45 he ran a 2:12 marathon this summer in Australia for an American masters record. He's won Olympic and world championship medals in mid-distances and has been a strong road runner. He's had some controversy in the past but remains a popular presence on the circuit. A few months ago, he was actually considered as a contender. Not likely with the newer runners stepping up. But he IS Bernard Lagat and he could surprise us all by making yet another Olympic team.

diablita · « **Reply #1 on:** October 21, 2019, 03:39:33 PM »

Thanks for the forecast. I really like both Scotts and Jared Ward. Will be interesting to see how it goes.

nadra's babydaddy · « **Reply #2 on:** October 21, 2019, 04:08:54 PM »

Scott looks Faubulous. As does Ward. It's probably not fair, but I can't help but dislike Rupp. I don't know if it's the Salazar thing and all his fancy gimmicks or what, but I do wonder how the whole mess will effect him. Fauble and Ward seem like almost the anti-Rupp...they have the feel of gritty old-school grinders who don't necessarily race a ton, but always seem to do well when they show up. Plus I have to root for Ward because he's a Utah guy.

GOGOGO!!!!

Coyote Mas Loco · « **Reply #3 on:** October 21, 2019, 05:10:17 PM »

I'm pulling for Korir, Fauble and Ward to make the team, maybe with Mock as a backup/spoiler.

Galen has had his day, clean or not, and he's never shown much personality or passion. Some years back, when he was still in college or soon after going pro, he was referred to as The Experiment, or Salazar's Experiment. And the now verified revelations of the USADA arbitration just bring that out more so.

So my bias goes all-Colorado, as I train at least once a week at open space park across from Fauble's high school, and I've been tracking Mock since his junior year at CSU when he ran something like 28:10 for 10000 m, but has had to be an underdog since graduating. And Korir trains just down the road in C. Springs. That said, Ward is a likeable guy and really solid marathoner and it'd be great to see him make another team.

Coyote Mas Loco · « **Reply #4 on:** January 15, 2020, 07:44:16 PM »

Droddy out! Say ain't so. We need meme man Randmart to find the photo, but he's the dude with waist-length hair and a scruffy beard who made his name as an unseeded runner lining up next to Rupp in the 2016 OT 10000 m run.

Running for Saucony. Injured following his 2:11 at Chicago in October.

nadra's babydaddy · « **Reply #5 on:** January 15, 2020, 08:31:31 PM »

WALMSLEYWALMSLEYWALMSLEY!!!

Coyote Mas Loco · « **Reply #6 on:** January 20, 2020, 07:48:26 PM »

Quote from: nadra's babydaddy on January 15, 2020, 08:31:31 PM

WALMSLEYWALMSLEYWALMSLEY!!!

He ran 1:02:16 on a short course in Phoenix yesterday (RnR Marathons comes through yet again), estimated 1:03:00 or so, a decent time. However, he would be the 20th fastest half USA marathoner yesterday as 18 did better at Houston and one US guy beat him in Phoenix.

I'm sticking with 2:13+/- and 8th to 15th place at the Trials.

diablita · « **Reply #7 on:** January 20, 2020, 08:05:52 PM »

That short course problem suuuuucks. I was angry when Cleveland Half measured long, can't imagine how it must feel when you're trying to OTQ or score a course record, etc.

nadra's babydaddy · « **Reply #8 on:** January 21, 2020, 03:58:21 PM »

Seriously how hard is it to measure an accurate course on the roads in this day and age, especially for a major event? 45 seconds off for the studs is nothing to sneeze at.

nadra's babydaddy · « **Reply #9 on:** January 22, 2020, 03:19:44 PM »

How about the poor bastard who ran 2:19:00.14.....and got denied entry....after initially being accepted.

https://www.instagram.com/p/B7mMDxWHiWi/
https://www.instagram.com/p/B7mj_0lHyvt/
https://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=9802441

nadra's babydaddy · « **Reply #10 on:** February 10, 2020, 04:49:06 PM »

Just a couple more weeks until Super Saturday! Apart from Walmsley running away with it, who ya got? Is Galen Rupp and the Galen Bros gonna spike everyone's punch bowl? Is Sc-ared Wauble going to 'persist and dream big' their way to the top? Is Bernard Lagat going to bring his old-school hardscrabble flair to the table and remind the youngsters that he has the best chance of beating Kenya in the general marathon? What say ye?

diablita · « **Reply #11 on:** February 10, 2020, 06:51:38 PM »

Don't count out Korir. I like him, Ward and the Scotts.

nadra's babydaddy · « **Reply #12 on:** February 10, 2020, 10:25:51 PM »

And now I see I missed an easy layup for 'Bernard bros'. Cut me some slack, I didn't sleep well last night!

Coyote Mas Loco · « **Reply #13 on:** February 13, 2020, 09:39:42 AM »

In another venue I picked out a top 10.

Korir (2:09 or 2:10s)
Ward
Rupp (but we'll see if he finishes)
Fauble
Stinson
Lagat (45 yr old, but such a gamer)
Fischer
S. Smith
Mock
Walmsley (high 2:13s)

diablita · « **Reply #14 on:** February 13, 2020, 11:31:04 AM »

I like your list, minus Rupp

nadra's babydaddy · « **Reply #15 on:** February 15, 2020, 02:04:26 PM »

[fanboy]I totally just drove past Jared Ward out running. Thinks to self “that guy looks way too effortless to be running that fa—OOOOH!” I thought about screaming “PROVE WILSON WRONG AND CRUSH ALL THEIR SOULS!” out the window but I was already past by the time I knew what was happening[/fanboy]

Coyote Mas Loco · « **Reply #16 on:** February 15, 2020, 05:38:47 PM »

Although I have Ward picked for 2nd, he's probably closest one to a lock for this team.

nadra's babydaddy · « **Reply #17 on:** February 17, 2020, 12:49:28 AM »

Walmsley says he's in 2010 shape! LOCKLOCKLOCK!!!

https://www.letsrun.com/news/2020/02/with-secret-trials-dagger-shoes-ultra-star-jim-walmsley-is-ready-to-take-on-the-2020-us-olympic-marathon-trials/

diablita · « **Reply #18 on:** February 17, 2020, 07:22:02 AM »

The big question is whether they'll actually get to run AT the olympics if they win.

Tokyo just cancelled the marathon for all but the elites over an abundance of caution.
Which, this sucks on many levels for people who've been planning and training but also they're not giving any of the race registration money back (they can defer to next year but no $$) and travel and race insurance probably won't pay because it's not fully cancelled.

Coyote Mas Loco · « **Reply #19 on:** February 17, 2020, 08:55:29 AM »

Yes I heard about the marathon.

nadra's babydaddy · « **Reply #20 on:** February 23, 2020, 11:49:17 PM »

https://podcast.letsrun.com/episode/a08f1bf62cbc4b0a/jim-walmsley-on-his-marathon-debut-at-the-trials-sponsored-by-hoka-one-one-

GOGOGOGO!!! Jim 'Bloomberg' Walmsley shall successfully infiltrate the marathon party and rock the Super Saturday Primary. Make it so!

Coyote Mas Loco · « **Reply #21 on:** February 24, 2020, 07:04:02 AM »

Quote from: Coyote Mas Loco on February 15, 2020, 05:38:47 PM

Although I have Ward picked for 2nd, he's probably closest one to a lock for this team.

Back at you NBD!

I got a head start on Ward and CleanSport as the get into some talk of odds for making the team: https://cleansport.libsyn.com/episode-35-jared-ward-olympian-and-209-marathoner

First, about Ward. He IS the Eliud Kipchoge of American distance running. It's impossible not to like Jared Ward.

About the odds, I agree Chris and Ward on the Pod, about 2:1 to make the team and he's tops.

Korir, Rupp 1:1

Fauble 2:5

Sorry Walmsely Fanbois 1:10

Stinson, Smith, Lagat, Fischer maybe 1:6 or 1:7 each.

diablita · « **Reply #22 on:** February 24, 2020, 09:28:03 AM »

I'm working my way through that CSC podcast right now. Downside of running with friends over the weekend is it takes me longer to catch up on the things I want to listen to.

nadra's babydaddy · « **Reply #23 on:** February 24, 2020, 09:36:08 AM »

Ah, Jar-lizabeth Ward-en! The people's progressive choice. Perfect mix of experience, skill, and forward thinking/motion. Plus or minus an epic mustache. AND I SAW HIM OUT RUNNING! Always reliable and looks like one of the best on paper, but how will that hold up on race day?

Coyote Mas Loco · « **Reply #24 on:** February 24, 2020, 04:12:29 PM »

Quote from: Coyote Mas Loco on October 21, 2019, 12:59:56 PM

2:06:07 Galen Rupp
2:07:56 Leonard KORIR
2:09:09 Scott Fauble
2:09:25 Jared Ward
2:10:36 Jacob RILEY
2:10:37 Jerrell MOCK
~~2:10:53 Parker STINSON~~
2:10:56 Andrew BUMBALOUGH
2:11:10 Matt MCDONALD
2:11:14 Matt LLANO
2:11:14 Scott SMITH
2:11:38 Brendan GREGG
2:11:42 Noah DRODDY
2:11:44 Wilkerson GIVEN
2:11:54 Diego ESTRADA
2:12:10 Bernard LAGAT
2:12:15 Andrew COLLEY
2:12:25 Augustus MAIYO
2:12:39 Brogan Austin

Stinson is out.

nadra's babydaddy · « **Reply #25 on:** February 24, 2020, 04:41:06 PM »

This week's victory; I already remembered to set the DVR!

diablita · « **Reply #26 on:** February 24, 2020, 07:23:22 PM »

No DVR for me, ducky

Wilson, you sure you can't hop on a plane??

nadra's babydaddy · « **Reply #27 on:** February 24, 2020, 07:41:22 PM »

diablita · « **Reply #28 on:** February 24, 2020, 08:21:54 PM »

Coyote Mas Loco · « **Reply #29 on:** February 25, 2020, 07:19:46 AM »

Quote from: diablita on February 24, 2020, 07:23:22 PM

No DVR for me, ducky

Wilson, you sure you can't hop on a plane??

I wish I could, for more reasons than I can explain here right now! And not sure if I mentioned but that was the plan before the injury, was going to run Gasparilla 15K last weekend and then head up to the OTs.

Should be a set of great races, and this is by far the OTs that have generated the most interest, or at least since the very first women's Trials in 1984.

nadra's babydaddy · « **Reply #30 on:** February 25, 2020, 11:19:41 AM »

I couldn't help but notice the calendar and wonder how many will be going for the OT/Barkley double next month (maybe).

diablita · « **Reply #31 on:** February 25, 2020, 11:29:36 AM »

You did mention. Oh well. I read another article that the olympics themselves are in question at this point (no surprise there) so maybe we'll have our own national big event this year and we can have a CH meetup there. It's a scary thought though.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/coronavirus-could-leave-only-3-months-decide-fate-tokyo-olympics-n1142401

nadra's babydaddy · « **Reply #32 on:** February 25, 2020, 11:59:53 AM »

CHMASSOLYMPICMEETUP!!!

Coyote Mas Loco · « **Reply #33 on:** February 25, 2020, 02:42:57 PM »

We can talk scenarios a little.

I say Walmsely takes it out after about 5 or 10 miles, running sub 4:50s to break away. How long can he hold sub 2:10 pace? And what mile will the chasers catch him. And they will, to the devastation of the fanboys. Can he hang on to an Olympic spot or top 5? No Stinson to Stinson it. Do others go with Walms? Tyler Pennell tried to make a break in LA four years ago, and it didn't work. Rupp and Korir will plan to sit and kick and they'll latch onto whoever is leading the chase pack. Ward's going to do his own thing in his own way but will make a strong move with 6-8 to go, but everyone knows he's smart so he'll have a little entourage. Where does Fauble mix in? Or does he? Hasn't had a strong result since Boston last year.

Win - 2:09:50
Place - 2:10:35
Show - 2:11:20

And a whole lot of carnage in their wake.

nadra's babydaddy · « **Reply #34 on:** February 25, 2020, 03:37:10 PM »

I don't think taking it out is in his best interest, but he doesn't always necessarily race in a way that's in his best interest. I can see him latching onto 'the entourage' and hoping for a more conservative pace. Of course then he's going to throw down a 28 10k and win in 2:07

nadra's babydaddy · « **Reply #35 on:** February 29, 2020, 12:05:31 PM »

VAMOOOOOO!!!!!

nadra's babydaddy · « **Reply #36 on:** February 29, 2020, 12:09:27 PM »

SLAYER!

nadra's babydaddy · « **Reply #37 on:** February 29, 2020, 12:20:15 PM »

Puke-esdra feeling frisky! Still no sign of walmsley. There will be no taking it out hard.

nadra's babydaddy · « **Reply #38 on:** February 29, 2020, 12:36:02 PM »

SHOW THE DAMN RUNNERS! WE DONT NEED 10 MINUTES OF 3 OLD GUYS TALKING ABOUT SHOES

nadra's babydaddy · « **Reply #39 on:** February 29, 2020, 12:41:46 PM »

First walmsley sighting! Comfortably nestled in the middle of the main pack and poised to take it all!

nadra's babydaddy · « **Reply #40 on:** February 29, 2020, 12:55:24 PM »

Who is this dork??

diablita · « **Reply #41 on:** February 29, 2020, 01:22:51 PM »

My phone’s gonna die but if you follow me on IG @ ginger_in_wnc you can see a few vids

nadra's babydaddy · « **Reply #42 on:** February 29, 2020, 01:55:49 PM »

You’ve got to be shitting me

nadra's babydaddy · « **Reply #43 on:** February 29, 2020, 02:14:08 PM »

ABDIABDIABDI!!!! How the hell is he even up there?

nadra's babydaddy · « **Reply #44 on:** February 29, 2020, 02:20:10 PM »

ABDI FUCKING ABDIRAHMAN ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME?

Arrojo · « **Reply #45 on:** February 29, 2020, 02:26:51 PM »

Abdirahman is 43. Never heard of him, but that’s pretty cool. Good finish.

Coyote Mas Loco · « **Reply #46 on:** February 29, 2020, 03:18:17 PM »

Quote from: Arrojo on February 29, 2020, 02:26:51 PM

Abdirahman is 43. Never heard of him, but that’s pretty cool. Good finish.

This is his 5th Olympic team for USA.

He's a gamer. I was thinking Lagat maybe.

Coyote Mas Loco · « **Reply #47 on:** February 29, 2020, 03:36:20 PM »

Walmsley fans go home devastated.

Sorry about Ward!

I really wanted him to make another team.

Rupp dominant and back into form.

Abdi makes his 5th Oly team and smashes USA masters record by 2+ minutes on a tough course!

Riley ran the race of his life, peaked at the right time. Lee Troop is a very good coach.

nadra's babydaddy · « **Reply #48 on:** February 29, 2020, 04:56:53 PM »

YESYESYES!!! I told you bitches Walmsley would beat Ward! And I'm sure after investigations are completed and it's proven that the first 21 runners cut the course that he will be awarded his rightful spot on the team

SnarlyMarly · « **Reply #49 on:** February 29, 2020, 05:25:04 PM »

Quote from: nadra's babydaddy on February 29, 2020, 04:56:53 PM

YESYESYES!!! I told you bitches Walmsley would beat Ward! And I'm sure after investigations are completed and it's proven that the first 21 runners cut the course that he will be awarded his rightful spot on the team

Race was exciting. With 1.5 to go I thought AA’s legs looked iffy.

CheryG · « **Reply #50 on:** March 01, 2020, 08:47:12 AM »

Walmsley's training has fascinated me. It's like he only runs at race pace twice a month?

Coyote Mas Loco · « **Reply #51 on:** March 01, 2020, 01:18:23 PM »

Quote from: SnarlyMarly on February 29, 2020, 05:25:04 PM

Race was exciting. With 1.5 to go I thought AA’s legs looked iffy.

yeah looked like he was falling apart and that was almost a walk of sorts, but those guys were going sub 5s

diablita · « **Reply #52 on:** March 01, 2020, 03:36:38 PM »

The lead packs were amazing to watch. Very little form breakdown from any of them where we were watching which was close to the top of the course so one of the hardest spots: they came up a looooong hill, crested then down a short hill to the turnaround, then back up again before the next long down. We had a couple of the mortals drop to the ground by the ATC staffer next to us, then get back up to gut it out. I'm not surprised that by the time they got close to the finish they were on their last legs.

Coyote Mas Loco · « **Reply #53 on:** March 02, 2020, 03:12:42 PM »

I guess I never updated a prediction list so this is just seed times-

2:06:07 Galen Rupp (1st)
2:07:56 Leonard KORIR (4th)
2:09:09 Scott Fauble (12th)
2:09:25 Jared Ward (27th)
2:10:36 Jacob RILEY (2nd)
2:10:37 Jerrell MOCK (dnf)
2:10:53 Parker STINSON (dns, and his MIL is really really REALLY mad at him, something about an encounter with a 'barfly' 10 days before OTs)
2:10:56 Andrew BUMBALOUGH (dnf)
2:11:10 Matt MCDONALD (10th)
2:11:14 Matt LLANO (38th)
2:11:14 Scott SMITH (19th)
2:11:38 Brendan GREGG (14th)

Ward and Fauble falling off and 43 year old Abdi finishing third were the biggest surprises here. I thought Riley might make top 6, esp after Stinson Stinsoned the start.

News:

Author Topic: Men's Olympic Trials Marathon 2 weeks out (Read 15073 times)

SUPPORT US