Olympic Trials Marathon women's preview - 5 months out

[Coyote Mas Loco]

The Gwen Jorgensen thread that bumped up this week got me to thinking about who looks ready and who is struggling now. Five months to go. The Trials will be in Atlanta, GA. The latest news is that the top 3 go (no IAAF time qualifiers needed now), and that the organizers smoothed out the course, taking out some of the turns and large hills. So it should be a faster race.

The favorites by qualifying time
Jordan Hasay   2:20:57   A   Bank of America Chicago Marathon   Chicago, IL   10/8/2017   Yes
Amy Cragg   2:21:42   A   Tokyo Marathon   Tokyo, JPN   2/24/2018   
Emily Sisson   2:23:08   A   Virgin Money London Marathon   London, UK   4/28/2019   Yes
Kellyn Taylor   2:24:29   A   Grandma's Marathon   Duluth, MN   6/16/2018   Yes
Sara Hall   2:26:19   A   Scotiabank Ottawa Marathon   Ottawa, CAN   5/27/2018   
Shalane Flanagan   2:26:22   A   TCS New York City Marathon   New York, NY   11/4/2018   
Molly Huddle   2:26:33   A   Virgin Money London Marathon   London, UK   4/28/2019   Yes
Aliphine Tuliamuk   2:26:50   A   NN Marathon Rotterdam   Rotterdam, NLD   4/7/2019   Yes
Desiree Linden   2:27:00   A   BAA Boston Marathon   Boston, MA   4/15/2019   Yes
Nell Rojas   2:28:07   A   Grandma's Marathon   Duluth, MN   6/22/2019   Yes
Allie Kieffer   2:28:12   A   TCS New York City Marathon   New York, NY   11/4/2018   
Emma Bates   2:28:19   A   California International Marathon   Sacramento, CA   12/2/2018   
Roberta Groner   2:29:09   A   NN Marathon Rotterdam   Rotterdam, NLD   4/7/2019   Yes
Stephanie Bruce   2:29:21   A   California International Marathon   Sacramento, CA   12/2/2018   
Lindsay Flanagan   2:29:25   A   Frankfurt Marathon   Mainova, Frankfurt   10/28/2018   Yes

Who's on form, who is not
Hasay – Coached by Salazar/Nike Oregon Project. Apparently healthy but often injured. Has barely raced in 2019.  If healthy Hasay will likely make the team.
Cragg – Defending Trials champion, 7th at Rio Olympics, and Bronze medal at 2017 World Championship. Hasn’t raced in a year and a half and said to be injured. Chances are dwindling.
Sisson – On a roll, with a 2:23 debut last spring; has as good of a chance at making the team as anyone, and maybe the favorite to qualify. 
Taylor – Surprise of 2018-2019. Looking very fit as of summer 2019. Based on recent form also a good possibility for top 3. 
Hall – Wife of Ryan Hall, has been on road racing tear over the past two years. Racing a lot on the roads and winning several national championships.
S. Flanagan – America’s favorite marathoner. Can she do it again and make one more team at 38, following major knee surgery early this year? Not likely, but cannot count her out.
Huddle – Most talented distance runner (10K and up) in the US over the past 5 or 10 years (like 28 national championships), but hasn’t put together a great marathon. Almost certain to make the 10000 m team later in the year, and should be top 5 in the OT marathon unless something goes awry. 
Tuliamuk – Like Huddle, super talented at 10K to half marathon and would have a good chance if one of the top runners has an off day.
Linden – With the Boston win, probably now the most famous marathoner of the bunch. Has made two Olympic teams, but with NYC and Boston Marathons in the mix in 2019-20, may not even line up or take the OTs seriously. But like Flanagan, can’t count her out if she makes a go of it.
Rojas – A triathlete with a good running background (father was USA champion in 10000 m back in the 70s and she ran at Northern Arizona University), Rojas had the break out race that Gwen Joregensen was expected to have. Ran that earlier this summer with the 2:28 at Grandma’s.
Kieffer – PRd just last year at the fairly tough NYC course but has struggled with injury and coaching changes since. Talented and iconoclastic/somewhat provocative, but probably a long shot to make the team.
Bates – Emma Bates is a runner to watch. She’s still young (27) and made her debut last fall with a 2:28 on the fast California International Marathon, and winning the USA championship. Has had some injury problems in her pro career.
Groner – at 41 the oldest in the field. Running for Team USA at the World Championships marathon in Doha, Qatar.
Bruce – Like Sara Hall a prolific racer and fierce competitor and a runner who has peaked in her mid-30s. She has an outside chance to make the team.
L. Flanagan (no relation to Shalane) – Been on the scene for a number of years, and will run Chicago Marathon next month to try to get under 2:29. A long shot.

Others who could be in the mix – Gwen Jorgensen who won the Olympic triathlon in Rio and has run sub 32 for 10K and dipped under 1:11 for the half marathon. Also Elaina Tabb (qualifying with a 1:10 half) and Sally Kipyego (NCAA champion in XC, and Olympic Silver Medal for Kenya in 2012), qualified with a 1:11 half marathon might have a chance. Laura Thweatt, ran a debut 2:25 at London a few years ago (and top 10 all time USA) but had a huge injury cycle and has raced sparingly since. Ran very competitive 32 minute 10K last spring at the US road championships, finishing near several of the marathon potential favorites (Hall, Bruce, Kipyego, Bates).

[nadra's babydaddy]

Should be Hasay's to lose if Salazar can keep a bubble around her for the next 5 months.  I shouldn't type that too loudly because he'd probably try.  Don't know much about Sisson, but seeems solid.  I'd love to see Molly Huddle put it all together too.  She could do some real damage if she races up to her potential. 

[Coyote Mas Loco]

Hasay, Bruce, and Bates will face off at the Chicago Marathon in a few weeks. Hasay's 1:12 set letsrun asunder, with many saying she's done. Obviously, just a workout, in fact said to have skipped the awards while doing a post-race speed workout near the venue.

As far as favorites for the Olympic Team - I'll go with the blond pony tails of Hasay, Sisson, Taylor, with Bruce, Bates, and Huddle fighting for a spot should one of the those three DNS, or have an off day. Weather permitting it will probably take a 2:26 or better to make the team. 

[nadra's babydaddy]

I almost said in that thread that you know who the hardcore ones are because they miss the award ceremony while they're out doing a 5 mile cooldown 

[Coyote Mas Loco]

I almost said in that thread that you know who the hardcore ones are because they miss the award ceremony while they're out doing a 5 mile cooldown 

I think the rudeness comment came up in the Philly thread.

[nadra's babydaddy]

If the guys who chuck snowballs at santa claus call me rude, I take that as a compliment 

[diablita]

I'm SO excited to spectate at the trails in Atlanta.

I think Des running NYC tells us a lot about what she thinks of the Olympics.  But who knows.

[nadra's babydaddy]

A bunch of the contenders are running chicago around the same time too.  Don't know that it necessarily means anything - that's still time for a solid training cycle.  If they were jumping into Boston or London that might be another story. 

[diablita]

Des has been pretty obvious about her dislike of doping in the sport, leaving the Hansons when Ritz joined for example.  The World Marathon Majors seem to have a better handle on doping than the Olympics.  So while you could be right, it's not a stretch to assume she'd rather run in a cleaner race.

[nadra's babydaddy]

Apparently I missed a lot of history.  I didn't know she left the Hansons and didn't know Ritz was sketchy.  Is that just automatic for anyone who's been affiliated with Saladbar now?  Not an altogether unfair assessment. 

[diablita]

I think yes, tbh.  Affiliation with Salazar casts a shadow of a doubt. period.

[nadra's babydaddy]

Hasay's a witch!  Burn her!!! 

[nadra's babydaddy]

Rupp too.  But he'll just probably show up in a peach-colored space suit and drop out at 18. 

[Coyote Mas Loco]

Apparently I missed a lot of history.  I didn't know she left the Hansons and didn't know Ritz was sketchy.  Is that just automatic for anyone who's been affiliated with Saladbar now?  Not an altogether unfair assessment.

Probably you were busy setting up the nursery or changing diapers. Some say Ritz served a soft ban (no announcement) during yet another injury rehab a couple of years ago.

Into the gray area (thyroid medication) and crossing to the black, taking more l-carnitine than allowed, through IV infusions.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/19/sports/nike-oregon-project-alberto-salazar-dathan-ritzenhein.html
Ritz admitted to taking infusions

[nadra's babydaddy]

 I aint paying to read, but I found the letsrun scoop! Crazy stuff... https://www.letsrun.com/news/2017/05/usada-appears-highly-likely-6-nop-athletes-including-galen-rupp-dathan-ritzenhein-violated-anti-doping-rules/

 Yeah, a temp ban would be the best thing that ever happened to him.  He just needs to reset and respawn a new body. 

[Coyote Mas Loco]

I think yes, tbh.  Affiliation with Salazar casts a shadow of a doubt. period.

I like Hasay, like Ritz she's hard not to like. But yes some suspicion, along with Sifan Hassan (Netherlands) who is at near world record levels of performance this summer. Hasan has supposedly declared to run the 1500, 5000, and 10000 in a 10 day period (6 races with heats and semis) at the World Championships starting next week. I want them all to be clean, but with Salazar at the helm I know they're deep into the gray area and maybe doing things that are so new that they're not yet banned. Or simply undetectable.

[Coyote Mas Loco]

not sure if I got it all with cut and paste, but here's the NYT article

Dathan Ritzenhein, an Olympic distance runner for the United States, was starting to feel sick from his thyroid medication — a drug that was not medically necessary but one that his coach, a powerful and combative figure in the sport, had strongly recommended to improve his performance.

The coach was Alberto Salazar, a running legend himself who after his competitive career had teamed up with Nike, the world’s largest athletic apparel manufacturer, to train elite runners. He was dismissive when Ritzenhein expressed concerns, Ritzenhein later said under oath. Salazar was focused on revving Ritzenhein’s endocrine system for a coming race, he said, “instead of just whatever was best for my health.”

The tension between Ritzenhein and Salazar over medical issues and methods of performance enhancement was not uncommon in the Oregon Project, the vaunted team financed by Nike and led by Salazar that includes some of the world’s most celebrated runners. Ritzenhein’s experience, along with incidents involving several other athletes, were laid out in vivid detail in a confidential report written by the United States Anti-Doping Agency that was obtained by The New York Times.

The report, some aspects of which have been reported by The Times of London, describes, over 269 pages, a culture of coercion, secrecy and possible medical malpractice in the Oregon Project, an effort to make American distance running relevant again on the international stage.

The Nottingham researchers had written about a method in which they were able to infuse patients with L-carnitine to bring levels up thousands of times compared with the baseline. This procedure took 4 hours 10 minutes instead of six months of drink consumption. Acting with urgency, Salazar decided to test the process on an employee. Steve Magness, an assistant coach, was the chosen guinea pig.

Magness, who was at first unwilling, eventually relented to Salazar’s demands and soon took a preinfusion treadmill test. Medical records obtained by the antidoping agency showed that Dr. Brown then gave Magness a continuous gravity drip infusion of L-carnitine on Nov. 28, 2011, that lasted 4 hours 10 minutes. The records note that Dr. Brown used the same duration, method and solution of L-carnitine and dextrose outlined by the Nottingham researchers.

Even though L-carnitine is not a banned substance, the method of infusion used by Dr. Brown was prohibited, antidoping officials believe. Antidoping rules prohibit “infusions and/or injections of more than 50 mL per 6 hour period except for those legitimately received in the course of hospital admissions, surgical procedures or clinical investigations.”
Fifty milliliters is about three tablespoons of liquid, an amount that would not take four hours to infuse.

Dr. Brown left crucial information out of Magness’s medical records, the report said, including the quantities of L-carnitine that he infused. However, from Magness’s sworn testimony, the antidoping officials concluded “it appears very likely that the infusion volume administered to Steve Magness by Dr. Brown was at least 1000 mL (i.e., one liter).”

Magness said in a recent interview that he was not aware at the time that the treatment would be more than 50 milliliters and a violation of doping rules. “Both Dr. Brown and Alberto told me it was good with Usada and I mistakenly trusted them,” he said.

Magness described the results of his post-L-carnitine treadmill test as “almost unbelievable.” Salazar was enamored, and quickly focused on making sure Ritzenhein got the treatment as soon as possible.

After learning about the procedure, however, Ritzenhein said to Salazar: “Is this legal? This doesn’t sound legal.”

Realizing that the procedure was a breach of antidoping rules, the report said, Salazar and Dr. Brown changed the infusion protocol. From now on, the athletes would be infused for just over an hour, instead of the more conspicuous four.

In an email message obtained by antidoping officials, Salazar then appeared to mislead Ritzenhein: “Hi Dathan, we are cutting edge but we take no chances on a screw up. Everything is above board and cleared thru Usada. They know me very well because I always get an okay before doing anything!”

In its report, the antidoping agency said, “Salazar’s statement about always getting clearance with Usada ‘before doing anything’ is both ironic and inaccurate.”

Nike had begun making fewer payments to Ritzenhein based on his disappointing performance, he said. He believed that his options were to submit to the infusions or leave the Oregon Project. “There’s no way for me to get around it at that point, in my eyes,” he said in the report.

He received the infusion — which now took just 1 hour 10 minutes — in Dr. Brown’s Houston offices on Dec. 13, 2011. He also mentioned that Dr. Brown or someone on his staff would come in every few minutes and squeeze the infusion bag.

Dr. Brown provided antidoping officials with Ritzenhein’s medical records, but the report says the version he sent was altered. A page was removed and an added annotation read “45mL.” Antidoping officials said they were able to determine the alteration by comparing the records with those provided by Ritzenhein.

Antidoping officials suggest that administering an infusion of less than 50 milliliters “continuously and uniformly over a one hour period is a practical impossibility and Dr. Brown knew this,” concluding that Ritzenhein “received 9.67 grams of L-carnitine over 1 hour, which demonstrates that Ritzenhein likely received an infusion far in excess of 50 mL.”

Ritzenhein did not run fast enough to qualify for the Olympic team at the marathon trials in 2012, and Nike paid him only half his expected $200,000 salary for the year, he said.

‘Utmost Respect for Alberto’

As previously reported by The Times of London, the report also said that Galen Rupp, an Olympic silver medalist, and Mo Farah of Britain, one of the most successful runners in Olympic history, also received infusions of L-carnitine. Rupp, Farah and Salazar have repeatedly rejected any claims that they violated antidoping rules.

Among the others identified in the report as having used L-carnitine was Tara Welling, a standout at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles who moved to Oregon to work with Salazar in 2012. (Her surname was Erdmann when the report was written.)

In an email, Welling declined to discuss treatments she received under Salazar, citing medical privacy. “I had nothing but the utmost respect for Alberto and the staff,” she said about her arrival with the team in 2012. “At this time Usada has not yet been able to share with me the details or evidence that supports these allegations.”

Her comments to Usada — not given under oath — in the report were starkly different than her initial views in 2012, seeming to indicate that her beliefs about Salazar and the program had changed. Welling recalled Salazar’s abusing medications by giving her the prescription drug Celebrex out of his personal supply. She also spoke to the secrecy of the program, in which she said Salazar demanded that athletes remain closemouthed about all things related to the Oregon Project.

An investigator with the antidoping agency first interviewed Welling in the summer of 2015, and she insisted that she had never seen Dr. Brown and knew nothing about infusions. After reviewing Oregon Project emails, the agency found messages from Salazar in which he wrote that Welling “got the L-carnitine injection yesterday from BrownD.”

In a subsequent interview, Welling admitted that she, too, had received an infusion of L-carnitine. She said that Dr. Brown had drawn blood and performed a physical exam, a bone exam, a lower leg jump-test and an asthma lung-capacity test, and had poked her with a “roller thing.” Regarding the L-carnitine infusion, however, she said she could not remember a single detail.

Welling’s medical records showed a nearly 11,000 percent increase in her muscle L-carnitine levels after the infusion. For the antidoping officials, this was evidence of illicit performance enhancement.

When pressed about the infusion during her interview with the agency, Welling began crying. “I don’t know if Alberto did something to me,” she said.

Ritzenhein still runs competitively, but is without a sponsor, having left the Nike-funded program in May 2014. He no longer has a relationship with Salazar and has moved back to his home state, Michigan. Welling left the Oregon Project in December 2015. She is no longer sponsored by Nike, and now runs for Skechers.

“We cannot comment on the specific situation at this time,” a spokesman for the agency said in a statement. “However, we know there is a win-at-all-costs culture that exists across all levels of sport, and coaches especially – given their influence over athletes – have a responsibility to rise above those pressures and ensure that athlete health and safety is protected.”

Antidoping officials have not announced sanctions against anyone implicated in the report.

Correction: May 26, 2017
An article on Saturday about Nike’s Oregon Project and the running coach Alberto Salazar referred incorrectly to how the runner Tara Welling handled a request for an interview. Welling answered questions via email; she did not decline an interview request or make a statement through her husband.





















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Salazar has emphatically denied violating antidoping rules. He has said that he and his athletes closely followed all protocols established by antidoping authorities.

But in the report, antidoping officials depicted Salazar as a medicine chest whose door swung open for the world-class athletes on Nike’s payroll. They said he provided or helped gain access to prescription-dose vitamin D; calcitonin; ferrous sulfate; Advair; testosterone; and various thyroid medications. Many of the drugs have no proven benefits for runners.

The antidoping agency began investigating Salazar and the Oregon Project in 2015, after former team members and a staff member described cheating within the program in a report by the BBC and ProPublica.

United States antidoping officials now believe that Salazar and a Texas endocrinologist administered an infusion procedure in violation of antidoping rules, colluded to cover it up and then lied to their athletes about its legality.


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[nadra's babydaddy]

THANKYOUTHANKYOUTHANKYOU!!!  That makes it sound even worse.  Not a great look for American distance running.  We'll see who gets the last laugh when I crush souls on my fast food diet 

 

Editors’ Picks



‘He Stared at the Screen, and Then His Shoulders Slumped’

Salazar?  I don't blame him! 

[nadra's babydaddy]

Is it too late to retroactively disqualify his ass from Boston and finally give it to Dick?  Heavens knows what goofy crap he was on back then.

[Coyote Mas Loco]

Is it too late to retroactively disqualify his ass from Boston and finally give it to Dick?  Heavens knows what goofy crap he was on back then.

I have friends who ran for OTC at the time of Athletics West and all that, as well as when Salad bar was in college. They said he'd put anything into his body he could if it would make him faster. And the speculation is that he burned his adrenals at age 24 due to all the stuff he was doing, on top of the training and racing.

[diablita]

Do you guys know about the Clean Sport Collective?  I like what they're trying to do and have started listening to their podcast.  (a rabbit hole I reached thanks to Wilson's original Rogue recommendation)

[RandMart]

I ain't paying to read

I was wondering why he posted the whole article

You're a good man, Wilson

[Coyote Mas Loco]

Do you guys know about the Clean Sport Collective?  I like what they're trying to do and have started listening to their podcast.  (a rabbit hole I reached thanks to Wilson's original Rogue recommendation)

I've heard about it of course, with the Jenny Simpson interview the other month, but haven't listened.
(and did you see my note the daily thread a few days back that Steve Sisson has started up his new podcast--again). He's kind of out there these days, talking metaphysics and mind-body-spirit but it's interesting so far).

[diablita]

Oh interesting.  I must have missed that.  I may give it a listen though I'm a bigger fan of Chris.

[Coyote Mas Loco]

Since mid-summer I feel RR has drifted a bit and I think JoJo should be his regular sidekick. She's great.

[nadra's babydaddy]

The Gwen Jorgensen thread that bumped up this week got me to thinking about who looks ready and who is struggling now. Five months to go. The Trials will be in Atlanta, GA. The latest news is that the top 3 go (no IAAF time qualifiers needed now), and that the organizers smoothed out the course, taking out some of the turns and large hills. So it should be a faster race.

The favorites by qualifying time
Jordan Hasay   2:20:57   A   Bank of America Chicago Marathon   Chicago, IL   10/8/2017   Yes
Amy Cragg   2:21:42   A   Tokyo Marathon   Tokyo, JPN   2/24/2018   
Sara Hall     2:22:16    Motherfucking Berlin  9/29/2019  YESYESYES
Emily Sisson   2:23:08   A   Virgin Money London Marathon   London, UK   4/28/2019   Yes
Kellyn Taylor   2:24:29   A   Grandma's Marathon   Duluth, MN   6/16/2018   Yes
Sara Hall   2:26:19   A   Scotiabank Ottawa Marathon   Ottawa, CAN   5/27/2018   
Shalane Flanagan   2:26:22   A   TCS New York City Marathon   New York, NY   11/4/2018   
Molly Huddle   2:26:33   A   Virgin Money London Marathon   London, UK   4/28/2019   Yes
Aliphine Tuliamuk   2:26:50   A   NN Marathon Rotterdam   Rotterdam, NLD   4/7/2019   Yes
Desiree Linden   2:27:00   A   BAA Boston Marathon   Boston, MA   4/15/2019   Yes
Nell Rojas   2:28:07   A   Grandma's Marathon   Duluth, MN   6/22/2019   Yes
Allie Kieffer   2:28:12   A   TCS New York City Marathon   New York, NY   11/4/2018   
Emma Bates   2:28:19   A   California International Marathon   Sacramento, CA   12/2/2018   
Roberta Groner   2:29:09   A   NN Marathon Rotterdam   Rotterdam, NLD   4/7/2019   Yes
Stephanie Bruce   2:29:21   A   California International Marathon   Sacramento, CA   12/2/2018   
Lindsay Flanagan   2:29:25   A   Frankfurt Marathon   Mainova, Frankfurt   10/28/2018   Yes

[Coyote Mas Loco]

FIFY

The favorites by qualifying time
Jordan Hasay   2:20:57   A   Bank of America Chicago Marathon   Chicago, IL   10/8/2017   Yes
Amy Cragg   2:21:42   A   Tokyo Marathon   Tokyo, JPN   2/24/2018   
Sara MFing Hall     2:22:16    Motherfucking Berlin  9/29/2019  YESYESYES
Emily Sisson   2:23:08   A   Virgin Money London Marathon   London, UK   4/28/2019   Yes
Kellyn Taylor   2:24:29   A   Grandma's Marathon   Duluth, MN   6/16/2018   Yes
Sally Kipyego  2:25:10  Berlin 9/29/2019
Sara Hall   2:26:19   A   Scotiabank Ottawa Marathon   Ottawa, CAN   5/27/2018  
Shalane Flanagan   2:26:22   A   TCS New York City Marathon   New York, NY   11/4/2018   
Molly Huddle   2:26:33   A   Virgin Money London Marathon   London, UK   4/28/2019   Yes
Aliphine Tuliamuk   2:26:50   A   NN Marathon Rotterdam   Rotterdam, NLD   4/7/2019   Yes
Desiree Linden   2:27:00   A   BAA Boston Marathon   Boston, MA   4/15/2019   Yes
Nell Rojas   2:28:07   A   Grandma's Marathon   Duluth, MN   6/22/2019   Yes
Allie Kieffer   2:28:12   A   TCS New York City Marathon   New York, NY   11/4/2018   
Emma Bates   2:28:19   A   California International Marathon   Sacramento, CA   12/2/2018   
Roberta Groner   2:29:09   A   NN Marathon Rotterdam   Rotterdam, NLD   4/7/2019   Yes
Stephanie Bruce   2:29:21   A   California International Marathon   Sacramento, CA   12/2/2018   
Lindsay Flanagan   2:29:25   A   Frankfurt Marathon   Mainova, Frankfurt   10/28/2018   Yes

[Coyote Mas Loco]

Update time

The favorites by qualifying time
Jordan Hasay   2:20:57   A   Bank of America Chicago Marathom
Coach Salazar banned, NOP is done, and DNF at Chicago. Bad week for Jordan

Amy Cragg   2:21:42   A   Tokyo Marathon   Tokyo, JPN   2/24/2018   
Sarah Hall 2:22 at Berlin and USA 10 mile champion (53 minutes) on a roll!
Emily Sisson   2:23:08   A   Virgin Money London Marathon   London, UK   4/28/2019   Yes
Kellyn Taylor   2:24:29   A
Bates, Emma (USA) 2:25:27 at Chicago - a real favorite now

Shalane Flanagan   2:26:22   A   TCS New York City Marathon   New York, NY   11/4/2018   
Molly Huddle   2:26:33   A   Virgin Money London Marathon   London, UK   4/28/2019   Yes
Aliphine Tuliamuk   2:26:50   A   NN Marathon Rotterdam   Rotterdam, NLD   4/7/2019   Yes
Desiree Linden   2:27:00   A   BAA Boston Marathon   Boston, MA   4/15/2019   Yes
Stephanie Bruce   2:27:47   2019 Chicago Marathon
Nell Rojas   2:28:07   A   Grandma's Marathon   Duluth, MN   6/22/2019   Yes
Allie Kieffer   2:28:12   A   TCS New York City Marathon   New York, NY   11/4/2018    Injured again
 
Roberta Groner   2:29:09   A   NN Marathon Rotterdam   Rotterdam, NLD   4/7/2019   41 year old mother of 3 was 6th at World Championships1

Lindsay Flanagan   2:28:08   Chicago 2019, solid PR
Laura Thweatt        2:29:06 Chicago 2019, on a comeback
Taylor Ward           2:30:14 Chicago 2019
Sarah Sellers         2:31:49 2018 surprise Boston runner up with a 4 minute PR.

[diablita]

Insane performance from Sarah Hall.  I can't believe she's now going to run NYC and then try to make the team.

[nadra's babydaddy]

When you're in a groove you're in a groove!  She seems to go for these high intensity race batches and lately has been crushing all of them.  If she rolls at both Berlin and then NYC over two totally different course types that'll be a hell of a confidence builder.    She'll still have a 16 week cycle to work with as well.  Unless she also jumps into CIM for shits and giggles 

[Coyote Mas Loco]

Sarah Hall has got it dialed in. And Ryan coaches her better than he did himself. It's more the old school approach, all those fast big-time dudes in the 70s (Shorter, Rodgers, Greg Meyer) raced a lot and had fairly long careers. 

[nadra's babydaddy]

She seems to be able to handle the higher volume racing better than he was.  Seems like he was always battling some-or-another injury, with a few flashes of brilliance thrown in like the sub 2:05 in that crazy year in Boston.  So hopefully she holds up through the winter.  It's all about properly timed flashes of brilliance!

[Coyote Mas Loco]

She seems to be able to handle the higher volume racing better than he was.  Seems like he was always battling some-or-another injury, with a few flashes of brilliance thrown in like the sub 2:05 in that crazy year in Boston.  So hopefully she holds up through the winter.  It's all about properly timed flashes of brilliance!

He ran by feel, followed a very hard training schedule, and raced on emotion. So if he had a workout written down, he'd do it no matter what, and if he felt good in a race or workout he hammered. Sarah listens to her body and if she needs an easy day or a day off she'll do that. Running Rogue had a good podcast interview with Ryan earlier this year, maybe March or April.

[nadra's babydaddy]

Someone better be watching the lead pack like a hawk if we're going by double letters...

Sarah HaLL
Amy CraGG
Emily SiSSon
KeLLyn Taylor
EMMa Bates

Ironically the only top seed of the bunch who doesn't fit the bill is Jordan Hasay and well, enough said about that clusterfuck

 

[Coyote Mas Loco]

Actually worth its own thread.

Oh, and a men's OT hopefuls thread is coming up. That story got a whole lot more interesting this past weekend, and one more coming up with Leonard Korir making his debut in Amsterdam this weekend.

[Coyote Mas Loco]

Um

https://www.instagram.com/p/B34cW4kgzMt/?igshid=ii89zvapgbma

yeah, like I can predict the future

[diablita]

Allie shared today that she has a navicular stress reaction.  Not sure what this will mean for her shot but she may not have one now at all.

[Coyote Mas Loco]

That's too bad, and it pretty much knocks her out of the equation for even a top 10 finish at the Trials. She's been one of the more colorful characters on the marathon/road circuit in the past few years. Get healthy and fight it out another day, maybe something like next June at Grandma's in Duluth or at a fall marathon. If she tries to come back for the Trials or Boston she'll probably just end up right back on the injury wagon.

[diablita]

Gwen Jorgensen is out

She's concentrating on the 1ok and maybe 5k, not enough time between surgery and the trials for the marathon

[Coyote Mas Loco]

Jorgensen is better at the 10K anyway, and paid a price for too much too soon with the marathon training last year and the year before. If she can stay healthy she'll be in the mix for top 5 or 6 and maybe even for an at-large spot. Because if Sisson or Huddle or both make the marathon team then there is a good chance they would either give up their 10K position or even choose to run that in the Olympic track trials.

[nadra's babydaddy]

I changed my mind!  My old college XC teammate Mary Schneider just drilled the B standard with a 2:42 at CIM and is now the (single letters) prohibitive favorite.   Also let it be known that I was faster than her in college 

Make it so!

[Coyote Mas Loco]

I changed my mind!  My old college XC teammate Mary Schneider just drilled the B standard with a 2:42 at CIM and is now the (single letters) prohibitive favorite.   Also let it be known that I was faster than her in college 

Make it so!

76 women and 37 men qualified yesterday at CIM.

[nadra's babydaddy]

I know that's where a lot of the Utah hotshots go to roll the dice.  Pretty short turnover, but she habitually runs multiple marathons a year.  She's also an obnoxious yoga zealot on facebook 

[diablita]

I saw video of a number of runners hitting the OTQ yesterday at CIM.  Amazing!

[SnarlyMarly]

The winning times in the older female AG😳😳😳

[Chasing Amy]

I had no idea CIM was such a magnet for fast runners. I looked up a friend of a friend and she ran 2:48 which was only good enough for 108th place in the women's division.

[Coyote Mas Loco]

It's a fast course, with a 340 ft net downhill. It's rolling for the first 15 miles kind of like Boston without the Newton Hills. Good weather and hardly any turns.

There are now something like 260 men and 450 women who have qualified. That's a going to be a record. With the new shoes, a lot of interest, and better training than in the past, more are getting in. We can expect qualifying times to drop. Some are calling for true elite times only, so more like sub 2:15 and 2:35. I kind of like the everyman/woman aspect of the Trials and that's what makes it special. But maybe 2:17/2:18 for men and 2:38/2:39 for women. 

[diablita]

Yes, CIM is considered one of the very best of the faster courses.  I'd really like to run it next year.

One thing that worries me about the new shoes, Coyote, is that they may nudge a lot more people into the BQ time spot that would have been on the bubble.  That's worrisome when you think you've banked enough time and find out come announcement time that you didn't.  But also the "every person" aspect of the sport is wonderful and not everyone can afford a $250 pair of shoes they can only wear once/twice...so probably $500 to have a pair to try out before race day.

[Coyote Mas Loco]

The new shoe technology is killing it and within a year anyone interested in running for time and able to afford it will by buying those shoes. There is talk already that Kipchoge's Alphaflys will be available  for the Olympic Trials and Olympic elites. By all accounts these are at a whole new level that what we've been seeing and we'll see thing drop by another couple of minutes.

Seems like all my online friends from other forums are destroying their PRs in Next%s already. I'm holding off on any major shoe decisions until spring. Adidas is coming out with the Adios 5, which will be a notch below the 4%, no carbon plate and will probably be in the $130 range. I've used the Adios for the past 5 years and have really liked them. But if my competitors are using Next%s and beyond I'll be at a 5-10 second per mile disadvantage, at least in longer races.   

[diablita]

$130 is around what decent shoes cost these days; makes me feel a bit better

[Coyote Mas Loco]

$130 is around what decent shoes cost these days; makes me feel a bit better

I'm afraid the Alphaflys will be $350, and we'll only go up from there.

[diablita]

I guess marathon registration fees aren't inexpensive either these days

[Coyote Mas Loco]

Tell me about it, I ate a round trip ticket's worth to races I didn't run this year. Fortunately my club is paying for select races now, plus a small travel stipend to championships. But I don't want running to go the way of cycling and Nordic skiing where equipment is making a fairly significant difference but it costs a lot to gear up.